Ukraine the Underdog Takes a Risk - WSJ

Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine was already the largest European conflict since 1945. It is expanding into new territory, escalating as both sides intensify their airstrikes, and deepening the fissures in the Western coalition that backs Ukraine. It is also getting more complicated. With Ukraine’s offensive in the north expanding even as Russia tightens its death grip around Pokrovsk in the east, it is hard for casual observers to follow this tragic and unnecessary conflict.

The most recent development is Ukraine’s successful attack on the Russian border region of Kursk. Geographically speaking, the chunk of Russian territory seized by Ukraine in its current offensive isn’t large. At about 500 square miles, it is roughly the size of Los Angeles. It is only about 1% of the more than 40,000 square miles of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia and 0.0076%, or less than 1/10,000th, of the 6.6 million square miles in the Russian Federation.

In Ukrainian-occupied Russia, there are no important cities or transit routes. No mines, important factories or power plants. From a purely military perspective, the area is insignificant. The loss of it doesn’t keep Mr. Putin from waging war, nor does its occupation afford Ukraine resources or a strategic position that will help it win.

Even so, it matters.

It matters in part because Ukraine has successfully defied one of the great taboos of the atomic age. This is the first time that a nonnuclear country has invaded and occupied the territory of a nuclear power. Deterrence theoreticians have long believed that one of the benefits of having nuclear weapons is that no one would dare invade a nuclear-weapons state. Russia’s failure to launch nuclear weapons against invading forces now leaves scholars and policymakers scratching their heads.

via www.wsj.com

Walter Russell Mead