Is Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in the presidential race?

If Harris’s lead in the Blue Wall states lasts until Election Day, she will garner 270 electoral votes, even if she loses all the other swing states. 

Over the past six weeks, just about everything has gone right for the Harris campaign. But because things can change, and often do, in the closing weeks of presidential campaigns, it would be hasty to conclude that Harris is now the clear favorite to win the election in November. 

If her momentum continues, Harris will probably win. But it may not. If she stumbles in the September 10 debate, the momentum of the race may change. Trump’s campaign could regain its balance and sharpen its focus. And unforeseen events could shift the dynamic between the candidates.

We should also be cautious about concluding that Harris now enjoys a clear lead over Trump. In recent elections, not just individual polls but also poll averages have turned out to be misleading. Not only have there been large gaps between September surveys and actual results; the same has been true for polls conducted just days before the election. These gaps have not been random; most of them underestimated the share of the vote that Donald Trump eventually received, often by wide margins. 

via www.brookings.edu

Bill Galston.