Thursday, August 4, 2022

Hey, Folks: We're Not in a Recession | Washington Monthly

The critics often misunderstand how the Bureau of Economic Analysis calculates GDP. The BEA is a Commerce Department agency staffed by hundreds of professional economists and statisticians and one I know well since I oversaw it as undersecretary of commerce in the 1990s. This week, the BEA reported that the nation’s GDP, adjusted for inflation, declined at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter, following a 1.6 percent decline in the first quarter. That sounds dispiriting, but behind the headline numbers, the basic growth elements provide a more encouraging gauge of the economy’s path and prospects.


It may not be a recession, but it'll do until the real one comes along.

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