Saturday, November 7, 2020
We don’t yet know who won the 2020 election, but we do know who lost: the media. Almost every major media survey forecast an overwhelming popular-vote and electoral college win for Joe Biden and a Democratic takeover of the US Senate. But the predicted blue wave seems not to have materialized.
In Florida, polls gave Biden on average a lead of one point; the New York Times poll showed Biden beating President Trump by three points, and Reuters showed him winning by four points. Instead, Trump won the state by more than three. In Pennsylvania, Biden led by more than a point on average in pre-election polls; the NBC News/Marist survey predicted a five-point Biden victory; instead, the race is down to the wire. In Wisconsin, pre-election polls showed the former vice president up almost seven points. The Post/ABC News poll projected a 17-point Biden thrashing, while the Times predicted an 11-point Biden victory. Trump appears to have lost by just 21,000 votes.
The same is true of the Senate. In Maine, not a single poll showed Sen. Susan Collins (R) winning reelection, and some showed her losing by six, seven and even 12 points. Instead, she crushed her opponent by more than seven points. In North Carolina, with the exception of the GOP Trafalgar Group, not a single poll in the past month showed Sen. Thom Tillis (R) winning his race; he leads by nearly two points. In Iowa, Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was supposed to be endangered, but won by nearly seven points. In Montana, Sen. Steve Daines (R) was supposed to be in a nail-biter, but won by 10. Far from taking back the Senate, as of this writing Democrats have gained a grand total of one net seat. And defying expectations, Republicans won almost every toss-up in the House — picking up at least six seats and leaving Democrats with the