Friday, October 16, 2020

Trafalgar pollster: I predict a Trump win in the mid-270s

Their secret is that they try to adjust for “social desirability bias,” the reluctance of some people to tell pollsters the truth about their preferences for fear of being judged disapprovingly. Robert Cahaly, Trafalgar’s lead pollster, is of the belief that that effect is especially prevalent among Trump voters. If in fact there are a ton of “shy Trumpers” still out there who are lying to pollsters — which many experts doubt — then the polls this year are way off.


Who knows.

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