Tuesday, June 23, 2020

New Coronavirus Cases Have Reached Record Highs in 12 States; Here's Why It Doesn't Matter

Here’s the interesting part. One of the site’s editors, Michael Fumento, explains why the spike in new cases won’t lead to a subsequent spike in deaths.

“Death rates are higher at the start of an outbreak for the simple reason that the disease claims the low-hanging fruit first. This, he says, is known as Farr’s Law,” says Fumento. (Please scroll down for a description of Farr’s Law.)

Fumento continues:

The latest CDC data show that those aged 65 and older account for 80% of all COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. But that age group makes up only 16% of the population. At the other end of the spectrum, those under age 35 comprise 45% of the population but account for a tiny0.8% of COVID-19 deaths.

Not only has the disease already claimed many of the most vulnerable in this country, there are also millions who now have antibodies.

The combination means that even if there are lots of new cases going forward, the death toll is likely to be far less severe than it has been.

Why don’t we hear explanations like this from the mainstream media? Because if they had their way, the economy would remain shut down through Election Day.

Wikipedia:

Farr’s law was formulated by Dr. William Farr when he made the observation that epidemic events rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern. The time-evolution behavior could be captured by a single mathematical formula that could be approximated by a bell-shaped curve.

In 1840, Farr submitted a letter to the Annual Report of the Registrar General of Births, Deaths and Marriages in England. In that letter, he applied mathematics to the records of deaths during a recent smallpox epidemic, proposing that:

“If the latent cause of epidemics cannot be discovered, the mode in which it operates may be investigated. The laws of its action may be determined by observation, as well as the circumstances in which epidemics arise, or by which they may be controlled.”

He showed that during the smallpox epidemic, a plot of the number of deaths per quarter followed a roughly bell-shaped or “normal curve”, and that recent epidemics of other diseases had followed a similar pattern.

via www.redstate.com

Oh. I didn't know that. Interesting. Maybe it's not the end of the world, like ZeroHedge is pushing.

https://rightcoast.typepad.com/rightcoast/2020/06/new-coronavirus-cases-have-reached-record-highs-in-12-states-heres-why-it-doesnt-matter.html

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Comments

I might rephrase to "Death rates are higher at the start of an outbreak, one simple reason being that the disease claims the low-hanging fruit first." I suspect that there are other reasons as yet unknown.

Anyway, note that this "law" is contrary to all the mathematical modelling hoo-haa that's cost trillions of dollars.

Posted by: dearieme | Jun 23, 2020 11:37:10 AM