Monday, February 10, 2020
Case-fatality rates measure the number of deaths from a certain disease as a percentage of the total amount of patients.
Based on available data, the Imperial scientists estimate the case-fatality rate in the province Hubei - of which Wuhan is capital - as 18%.
They note the “credible interval” ranges from 11% up to 81%.
Among “travellers outside mainland China”, the case-fatality rate is estimated at between 1.2% and 5.6%, with “substantial uncertainty”.
Taking into account both asymptomatic and symptomatic incidences, the scientists calculated the likely overall case-fatality rate to be around 1%.