Monday, December 14, 2009
I think it is possible for them to take the House, but the Senate would be much harder. From a comment to Megan McCardle's site:
Let's assume that the GOP holds all of their seats (which according to recent polling looks likely), then the GOP would have to run the board (and get very lucky with candidate recruitment). But if the right candidates are chosen by the GOP and if the Dems continue their current trajectory, the following Dem held seats could be at risk.
California (Boxer), Arkansas (Lincoln), Nevada (Reid), New York (Gilibrand), Connecticut (Dodd), Illinois (No incumb.), Delaware (No incumb.), North Dakota (Dorgan), Colorado (Bennet), Penn (Specter), and then potentially Indiana (Bayh). Which would be 11 which would equal a majority for the GOP.
No of course, EVERYTHING would have to work in the GOP's direction for that to happen, but this is basically what happened for the Dems in 2006 & 2008 with Senate seats.
Well, that would be something. Of course, it is not really necessary for them to take the full Senate, even if they only win 30 seats in the House rather than the 41 needed to take it. Just getting to 45 Republicans would be enough to stop most bad stuff.
Here is something realistic to hope for -- that is, it is quite plausible that it could happen, even though it is not necessarily the most likely occurrence -- the Republicans take the House and they take 7 Senate seats. That would be all that is needed. House Republican investigations of the Obama shenanigans and an easy filibuster of any crap the Democrats push in the Senate.
That's what I am hoping for. But as they say, "hoping ain't getting." We shall see.