The Right Coast

Editor: Thomas A. Smith
University of San Diego
School of Law

A Member of the Law Professor Blogs Network

Thursday, November 8, 2012

House: prediction update and GOTV advice

The generic Congressional polls give a post-debate-1 median of D+1.0+/-0.5% (n=11, Oct. 4-22). However, 10% are still undecided. I estimate the outcome as D+1.0+/-3.0%. Republican retention of the House is likely but not certain. What is certain is that the House will be far more closely divided.


Hmmm. Is the House going to be far more closely divided? --TS

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