Here's how Jay Cost sees it as of now. Most of the O has a commanding lead polls are registered, not likely voters. More MSM drum banging. The bad news -- the election will be decided by the 15 percent who do not know how they will vote because they have not been paying attention to the most consequential three years in politics since, well, quite a while. Democracy -- where the dumbest 15 percent get to decide. A question -- take a biased media outlet, for example NPR, which I listen to a lot. It consistently overstates how well things are going for O and the Dem Party. I don't listen to Fox so much but assume they do they same thing for the GOP. Why? How does this help the party they are biased in favor of? Doesn't it promote complacency? How does having a falsely positive view of things help the side for which you are skewed positive? On Wisconsin, panic did set in, but really late, like the day before the vote. Wouldn't panic have been useful earlier? This suggests to me that (perhaps) the bias is more unconscious than an attempt to be useful to the side favored. Sort of like what you hear from hopeless fans of certain sports teams. Implausible theories of why the Padres will have a good year this time are easy to find in San Diego, merely difficult to credit. They are not efforts to help the Padres; proponents of them just can't help themselves.