Monday, December 31, 2007
The intrade prediction market on the 2008 elections is pretty depressing. It has Hillary running at about a 70% chance to get the Dem nomination, notwithstanding the close race in Iowa. It rates the Democrats as having a 60% chance of taking the White House.
Of course, things with only a 40% chance of happening happen often, indeed, about 40% of the time. And prediction markets obviously can be wrong. They're more thinly traded than many markets and only as good as the information traders have to work with. Still, studies I have seen suggest they do a better job of predicting future events than expert opinions or mere polls.
As much as I am sure I would not like the policies of the Democrats in the White House, mostly I just don't want the spectacle of Hillary and Bill back in the White House. I'm still not over the Starr Report, which I wish I had never read, like one of those websites you are sorry to have stumbled upon.
Call it right wing paranoia, but I thought the Clintons brought to public life a degree of ruthlessness that appalled many of even the hardened souls in DC, and I was in DC for about half of the Bill years. I would much prefer Obama or even Edwards. It would take either of them years to build the private army the Clintons have at their disposal. The combination of a very personally ruthless President and all the dangers and opportunities presented by the War on Terror to the Executive branch, puts a knot in my little libertarian stomach. Or not so little.