Prediction market blues Tom Smith

The intrade prediction market on the 2008 elections is pretty depressing.  It has Hillary running at about a 70% chance to get the Dem nomination, notwithstanding the close race in Iowa.  It rates the Democrats as having a 60% chance of taking the White House.

Of course, things with only a 40% chance of happening happen often, indeed, about 40% of the time.  And prediction markets obviously can be wrong.  They're more thinly traded than many markets and only as good as the information traders have to work with.  Still, studies I have seen suggest they do a better job of predicting future events than expert opinions or mere polls. 

As much as I am sure I would not like the policies of the Democrats in the White House, mostly I just don't want the spectacle of Hillary and Bill back in the White House.  I'm still not over the Starr Report, which I wish I had never read, like one of those websites you are sorry to have stumbled upon.

Call it right wing paranoia, but I thought the Clintons brought to public life a degree of ruthlessness that appalled many of even the hardened souls in DC, and I was in DC for about half of the Bill years.  I would much prefer Obama or even Edwards.  It would take either of them years to build the private army the Clintons have at their disposal.  The combination of a very personally ruthless President and all the dangers and opportunities presented by the War on Terror to the Executive branch, puts a knot in my little libertarian stomach.  Or not so little.

Comments

[PersonFromPorlock]

On the other hand, the reaction of the Right to all the powers Mr. Bush has arrogated to the Presidency being suddenly in Ms. Clinton's hands would be... probably not quite funny enough.

[Patrick Carroll]

I'm sure that B^HHill would abrogate all the powers immediately!

For the children!

[ronbo]

I don't think it would take Edwards very long.

[Fatty Liver Treatment]

I don't think we can win with anyone..Republican or Democrat. It needs to be ONE party.

DJ